COVID-19 and Its Implications on Agriculture, Environment, and Water Sectors

The advent of COVID-19 had implications for various sectors of the economy, compounding the challenges set in motion by climate change. Whilst the dawn of 2021 came with hope for recovery from the pandemic, the beginning of 2022 came with another complexity of the Russia-Ukraine war, which hampered recovery efforts. This book examines the trends, dynamics, and implications of COVID-19 for agriculture, environment, and water sectors within the broader context of Sustainable Development Goals using a cocktail of primary and secondary research techniques. The book adopts the quantitative, qualitative, and multi-methods of enquiry. Findings show the increasing temporal trend of COVID-19 cases following periodic waves and spatially variable distribution of cases, with more cases in densely populated urban areas. These trends and dynamics, influenced by a web of intermingling factors, have had ramifications on the agricultural, environmental, and water sectors and subsectors with consequent negative outcomes on virtually all facets of life. The recovery process is being hampered by several factors ranging from poor governance, which results in policy distortions and other global factors. Climate change and the Russia- Ukraine war have complicated the COVID-19 recovery process by pushing up oil and food prices, rendering the poor more vulnerable to food insecurity and increased poverty, challenging Zimbabwe's economic resilience. Social safety nets and tackling climate change and other policy distortions are critical to ensure a sustainable future. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.

Did U.S. and Chinese investors respond differently to the exogenous shocks from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine?

This paper investigates the U.S. and Chinese stock markets' long-run responses to COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war, the main shocks that have recently battered the globalized economy. The investigation uses both static data analysis and ARMA-GARCH and DCC-GARCH dynamic risk models incorporating both events' impacts. Model fitting reveals opposite reactions of the two stock markets' long-run volatilities to the pandemic, but both volatilities have been enhanced by the war, with a much stronger reaction from the U.S. than from the Chinese market. Furthermore, the war has reduced the linkage between the two markets, while the pandemic has had no significant effect. The different responses of U.S. and Chinese investors may be attributed to the two countries' very different virus containment strategies, pandemic severities, and policy approaches to the geopolitical conflict. Our results have important practical implications for regulators' risk mitigation policy design and investors' cross-market hedging strategy development.

Threats to sustainability in face of post-pandemic scenarios and the war in Ukraine.

As the World slowly emerged from the then-ongoing pandemic, War broke out in Europe with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The enduring military conflict in Ukraine has had sweeping consequences at the human, social, economic, and environmental levels, not only for the nations involved but across Europe and globally. Damaged infrastructures, severe disruption of economic activity, and forced migration have led to negative impacts on sustainability. The COVID-19 pandemic has added another layer of complexity to this already challenging situation, as the virus has further disrupted economic activity and strained healthcare systems. Herein, we examine how the intersection of war and COVID-19 affect the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. How these intersecting challenges have impacted efforts to build a more sustainable future, and how these impacts have a global reach are also assessed. The broader implications of this case for understanding the linkages between conflict, pandemics, and sustainability more generally are also considered, relating these with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda for 2030.

The reaction of the metal and gold resource planning in the post-COVID-19 era and Russia-Ukrainian conflict: Role of fossil fuel markets for portfolio hedging strategies

The prime objective of this article is to examine the policy-making role of metal markets, gold resources, and clean energy markets in the post-COVID-19 era and the Russia-Ukrainian military conflict. In doing so, we analyze the role of fossil fuels, clean energy, and metals markets, considering the military conflict in Ukraine in 2022. The study employs event study methodology (ESM), Total connectedness index (TCI), and network analyses. The results indicate that natural gas and clean energy prices are less affected by conflict in the aftermath of an invasion than traditional energy and metals markets. In addition, we observe an increase in the TCI in the energy markets during announcement days. The TCI of the metals market is greater than that of the energy market. According to network connectivity, the key asset class transmitters of the shock in Europe are the Geopolitical index (GPR), gold, and the clean energy stock index (ERIX). The U.S. markets are less affected by the situation in Ukraine. The average hedge suggests that the optimal hedge differs from one market to the next, with fossil fuels and renewable energy, respectively, being more hedge effective and reducing risk by an average of around 0.80 and 0.59, given their ability to function as a hedging instrument.

Dynamic co-movement in major commodity markets during crisis periods: A wavelet local multiple correlation analysis

We study time-scale co-movement of returns and implied volatilities of oil, gold, wheat, and copper in a multivariate setting using the wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) approach. Daily data cover January 03, 2007 – August 08, 2022, including the global financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia-Ukraine war. The results show that the correlations across the commodities are heterogeneous, less stable in the short-term, and more pronounced in the long-term, and vary in sign and magnitude. Despite market instability, contagion is not clearly seen in either return or volatility, reflecting noise trading and the importance of the individual characteristics of commodities.

Russia-Ukraine conflict: 2030 Agenda for SDGs hangs in the balance

Purpose - While the world is yet to fully recuperate from the social and economic repercussions of COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict poses another major threat causing a humanitarian crisis and economic shock. Although the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its pledge to "leave no one behind" is a universal commitment to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable groups, the Russia-Ukraine ongoing conflict is causing immense suffering and a gloomy future for the 2030 Agenda. The purpose of this study is to provide a holistic understanding of the ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war in SDGs progress around the world. Further, the authors shed light on how stakeholders can help engage in support of SDGs in such a challenging time. Design/methodology/approach - This study is qualitative in nature and relies on secondary sources. The motive behind this study is to allow social and economic policy researchers and practitioners to learn from the Russia-Ukraine dispute. The authors conduct a preliminary factual analysis to determine patterns of how the conflict affects the SDGs Agenda. On this basis, the authors propose some recommendations. Findings - While it is still early to measure the full impact of the war on crises worldwide, it is clear that the repercussions will be multi-dimensional. The authors argue that the conflict in Ukraine is severely threatening the achievement of the SDGs. As such, the authors identify patterns of this crisis that have halted progress on SDGs worldwide. Of all SDGs, the authors argue that SDG16 (i.e. peace and justice) is an absolute pre-requisite to sustaining other goals. Further, refugees should be economically empowered, resilient and sustainable food systems need to be put in place and renewable energy transition is required. Research limitations/implications - This study serves as a springboard for future research by identifying patterns of war crises that have halted progress in achieving sustainable development worldwide. Empirical evidence needs to be conducted on the impact of this ongoing conflict on sustainable development and the 2030 Agenda. Practical implications - This study could provide guidance to leaders and stakeholders across the globe on patterns for the impact of the Ukraine Russia conflict on undermining global sustainable development while highlighting the need for major additional efforts to achieve the relevant SDGs. Originality/value - To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to analyse the threats the Russia-Ukraine dispute presents to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for SDGs.

Energy cryptocurrencies: Assessing connectedness with other asset classes

We investigate connectedness between energy cryptocurrencies and common asset classes, including oil, using TVP-VAR modeling, evidencing that energy cryptocurrencies, as diversifiers, normally have strong connections with bitcoin and nothing else. However, their connectedness to other assets changes rapidly during shocks such as COVID-19 and the start of the Russian-Ukraine war. Connectedness spiked in April 2020, when WTI oil prices fell to negative pricing. Economic policy uncertainty, Twitter-based uncertainty, and infectious disease-related uncertainty all have significant impact on the system's total connectedness. Energy cryptocurrencies, while normally diversifiers, are highly sensitive to shocks and changes in uncertainty.

Expected inflation and U.S. stock sector indices: A dynamic time-scale tale from inflationary and deflationary crisis periods

This paper analyses the co-movement between changes in expected inflation and U.S. stock sector returns utilizing a wavelet local multiple correlation approach, which records temporal evolution and potential correlation dynamics at various frequencies. Using daily data from January 2, 2003 to December 30, 2022, we find insignificant correlations in the short term but heterogeneous correlations in longer time periods. After the deflationary GFC period, quantitative easing has turned the long-term correlation negative in some sectors, and since COVID-19, the correlation has been positive. However, energy and materials are pro-inflation sectors in the medium and long term. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

Connectedness between emerging stock markets, gold, cryptocurrencies, DeFi and NFT: Some new evidence from wavelet analysis

This paper examines the dynamic connectedness between Gulf countries and BRICS stocks markets with a sample of cryptocurrencies, as well as two newly developed digital assets, namely NFT and DeFi, and Gold. The period under examination spans from January 2019 until September 2022. Our analysis is based on wavelet coherence, which is a suitable methodology considering the nonlinear dynamics present in data. Our empirical results clearly identify nontrivial time-varying connectedness between different assets and the stock markets. Asymmetric patterns in the interconnections of newly developed digital assets, cryptocurrencies, Gold and emerging market indices are well-documented, especially during the advent of the health and political events. Our empirical findings have relevant implications for portfolio managers, investors and researchers about portfolio allocation, investment strategies and potential diversification benefits of NFT and DeFi digital assets. © 2023 The Author(s)

Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war: evidence from DAX, ATX, and FTSEMIB

PurposeThe Russian invasion of Ukraine generated unprecedented panic in the European financial system. As expected, the European Union (EU) felt most of the negative effects of the war due to geographical proximity to Ukraine and energy dependence on Russia. This study aims to investigate the influence of Brent crude oil (BCO), Dutch Title Transfer Facility Natural Gas, and CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) on Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX), Austrian Traded Index (ATX) and Milano Indice di Borsa (FTSEMIB). The German, Austrian and Italian equity indexes were chosen due to the heavy dependence of these countries on Russian gas and oil.Design/methodology/approachThe data cover the period from November 24, 2021, to June 24, 2022, including five months of the Russia–Ukraine war. To generate the intended results, vector autoregressive, structural vector autoregressive, vector error correction model, Johansen test and Granger causality test were used.FindingsThe results highlight that natural gas and the VIX carried negative effects on DAX, ATX and FTSEMIB. The BCO was expected to have influenced three selected equity indexes, while the results suggest that it was priced only in ATX.Originality/valueThis research provides modest evidence for the policymakers on the systemic risk that Russian gas has for the EU equity markets. From a managerial perspective, changes in oil and gas prices are a permanently integral part of portfolio risk analysis.

Resilience strategies in coping to disruptions of wheat supply chain caused by the Russia–Ukraine war crisis: case study from an emerging economy

Purpose: The Russia–Ukraine war has disrupted the wheat supply worldwide. Given that wheat is one of the most important agri-food products in the world, it is necessary to pay attention to the wheat supply chain during the global crises. The use of resilience strategies is one of the solutions to face the supply chain disruptions. In addition, there is a possibility of multiple crises occurring in global societies simultaneously. Design/methodology/approach: In this research, the resilience strategies of backup suppliers (BS) and inventory pre-prepositioning (IP) were discussed in order to cope with the wheat supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, the p-Robust Scenario-based Stochastic Programming (PRSSP) approach was used to optimize the wheat supply chain under conditions of disruptions from two perspectives, feasibility and optimality. Findings: After implementing the problem of a real case in Iran, the results showed that the use of resilience strategy reduced costs by 9.33%. It was also found that if resilience strategies were used, system's flexibility and decision-making power increased. Besides, the results indicated that if resilience strategies were used and another crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, supply chain costs would increase less than when resilience strategies were not used. Originality/value: In this study, the design of the wheat supply chain was discussed according to the wheat supply disruptions due to the Russia–Ukraine war and its implementation on a real case. In the following, various resilience strategies were used to cope with the wheat supply chain disruptions. Finally, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the wheat supply chain in the conditions of disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine war was investigated. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Adaptation of local businesses to the new era during the COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war: case of Çeşme

Turkey's economic impact has been severe due to the lack of international tourists and the Covid-19 pandemic. Specifically, the tourist destination Çeşme has suffered economic fluctuations due to decreased international visitors, the Russia-Ukraine war, and insufficient domestic tourists to fill the gap. The study aims to identify deficiencies that help stakeholders manage tourism development amid Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews (n = 34) with local business owners operating for at least 25 years. The study provides insights into the recent tourism development during the pandemic and presents a high level of resilience among local businesses. The business owners perceive the current pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war situation differently psychologically. Most resilient business owners look for business opportunities by adapting their business models for long-term survival despite the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war affecting international tourism. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Spillover Effects and Connectedness between Oil Futures Markets and Commodity Futures Markets

In this study, it was found that the spillover effects between oil futures markets and commodity futures markets. I use the volatility spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to analyze the connectedness between oil futures and commodity futures returns. The main analysis results of this study are as follows. First, I show that spillover effects depend on the period, and especially find that spillover effects are active after the Russian-Ukraine War. Second, I find that the WTI and BRENT futures have a high value in both to spillover effects and From spillover effects. Third, the wheat futures market plays an important role after the COVID-19 outbreak. Finally, I find that the non-ferrous metal futures market is dependent on other markets in most periods. As a result, I find that the WTI and BRENT futures are important information senders in the oil and product asset markets. And the empirical results show that the Russia-Ukraine war increases the linkage of the futures market rather than COVID-19 outbreak. © 2023, Success Culture Press. All rights reserved.

A counterfactual analysis of the impact of the 2008 and 2020 crises on Spanish employment

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the 2008 and 2020 economic crises on employment in Spain. Design/methodology/approach: The authors perform a counterfactual analysis, combining intervention (interrupted time series) analysis and conditional forecasting to estimate a "crisis-free” scenario. These counterfactual estimates are used as a synthetic control, to be compared with the observed values of the main variables of the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA). Findings: The authors measure the effect on Spanish employment of the 2008 recession and the ongoing COVID/Ukraine crisis and the speed of recovery, which yields a rigorous dating for the beginning and end of the crises studied. Finally, the authors provide estimates about which part of the employed and unemployed people was in furlough (ERTE) based on microdata provided by the Spanish Institute of Statistics. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, there are no counterfactual studies covering all the basic variables in EPA and no estimates for the effect of ERTEs on the basic employment variables. Finally, the authors combine well-known intervention and forecasting techniques into an integrated framework to assess the effects of both, past and ongoing crises. © 2023, Miguel Jerez, Alejandra Montealegre-Luna and Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux.

Are Bitcoin and Gold a Safe Haven during COVID-19 and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine War?

Our investigation strives to unearth the best portfolio hedging strategy for the G7 stock indices through Bitcoin and gold using daily data relevant to the period 2 January 2016 to 5 January 2023. This study uses the DVECH-GARCH model to model dynamic correlation and then compute optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. The empirical findings show that Bitcoin and gold were rather effective hedge assets before COVID-19 and diversifiers during the pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war. From hedging effectiveness perspectives, gold and Bitcoin are safe-haven assets, and the investment risk of G7 stock indices could be hedged by taking a short position during thepandemic period and war except for the pair Nikkei/Gold. Additionally, gold beats Bitcoin in terms of hedging efficiency. We thus demonstrate the central role of Bitcoin and gold as financial market participants, particularly during market turmoil and downward movements. Our findings can be of interest to investors, regulators, and governments to take into consideration the role of Bitcoin in financial markets.

Contributing factors to the looming food crisis in sub-Saharan Africa: Opportunities for policy insight

The food price crisis of 2007–2008 and the recent resurgence of food prices have focused increasing attention on the causes and consequences of food price volatility in international food markets and the developing world, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Agricultural Price Index was 34% higher as of 30 June 2022, compared to January 2021. This paper reviews increasing food crisis in Africa in the wake of climate change, COVID-19, and the Russia–Ukraine war and the implications on Africa's food security stability. Climate change is affecting the fundamental basis of agriculture through changes in temperature, rainfall, and weather, and by intensifying the occurrences of floods, droughts, and heat stress. COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the production and supply chains, while the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war continues to disrupt the global food market and food prices. SSA is susceptible to the effects of this war, and this has already resulted in high demand for food commodities and increased food prices. The study calls for the need for the international community to establish a strategic food reserve to face food crises triggered by armed conflicts or climate-induced disasters and pandemics. This mechanism may facilitate reactive interventions that help to contain the human security implications of food crises, thus fostering peace. Solutions also lie in implementing programs and policies informing the monitoring of weather shocks and advancing supporting to those impacted. Additionally, the governments of SSAs should embrace domestic production of farm inputs such as fertilizer to avoid overdependence on imports which are susceptible to wars and conflict. © 2023 The Author(s). This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 license.

Tourist Potential of Ukraine: Challenges and Prospects of the Post-War Time

The tourism industry is one of the sectors of the global economy most affected by the pandemic. At the same time, in 2022, having not yet fully recovered from the impact of quarantine restrictions, it was forced to face a completely new challenge for itself-large-scale military operations on a large part of the European territories. It was Ukraine and its tourism sector that suffered the most from the war, and since the prospects for the end of the war are very uncertain, the issue of preserving the country's tourism potential, finding ways to speed up its recovery and post-war development of the tourism sector of Ukraine are gaining particular relevance. To substantiate the prospects and challenges for the tourism potential of Ukraine in the post-war period and to determine the key directions of actions of the state and business for its preservation, effective use and expansion during the war period. The methodological basis of the study was made up of general scientific and special methods of economic theory, in particular, methods of theoretical generalization and comparative analysis and synthesis for the purpose of researching all processes and phenomena of the tourism sector of Ukraine in interdependence and interconnection. In the course of the study, statistical materials of the European Union and Ukraine were applied on the functioning of the tourism sector of the economy and processed using the methods of statistical analysis: comparison, grouping, calculation of average values and proportions, as well as analytical data and assessments of specialized state agencies of Ukraine were used. A comparison of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the tourism sector of Ukraine and individual EU countries and the shares of tourism trade turnover in their GDP is made, which has revealed to note the low level of use of Ukraine's own tourism potential in the pre-war period. The key strengths and weaknesses of the tourism sector of Ukraine according to the version of the World Economic Forum have been studied and the prospects and consequences for them as a result of the war have been substantiated. A number of strategic courses of action for the state and business are proposed, based on the main possible prospects for the duration of active hostilities. © 2023, ASERS Publishing House. All rights reserved.

Impact of geo-political risk on stocks, oil, and gold returns during GFC, COVID-19, and Russian–Ukraine War

The study uses wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence transformation methodologies to examine how geopolitical risk affected the returns on stocks, oil, and gold during the GFC, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine war-three disruptive events that affected the world's financial markets. For better diversification benefits during the turbulent times, we further investigate the degree of co-movement in frequency and time domains. We observe that GPR has high variations during Russia-Ukraine war period compared to COVID-19 period and is shown to have least variation during the GFC period. WTI crude oil and DJGI indexes are observed to have high variations during GFC, and COVID-19 periods followed by Russia-Ukraine war. We further observe that GOLD offers better diversification opportunity as well as leading movement against WTI and DJGI during disruptive events in financial markets. The results provide new understanding of how geopolitical risk affects financial assets for international investors, fund managers, and regulators, which would further aid to find risky and safer haven possibilities during the turmoil periods. © 2023 The Author(s). This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 license.

The environmental pillar of ESG and financial performance: A portfolio analysis

Our research uses the environmental pillar of ESG as a proxy for environmental corporate social responsibility. We examine the performance of environmentally clustered portfolios by using simple quantitative investment strategies with optimum asset rotation. Post-hoc, sample-split analysis with non-parametric tests is performed. The results suggest that both environmental status and dynamic environmental performance are key characteristics of divergent financial behaviors. We show that environmentally low-rated companies present better financial performance, while environmental leaders are less risky and show more resilience. Assets with a dynamic environmental profile outperform on average in terms of returns and risk. Furthermore, supporting evidence of positive spillovers in high-rated environmental clusters is identified after the Paris Agreement. We evaluate the resilience of the environmental clusters during the COVID-19 crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war effect. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.